EUR/USD – Should see one last decline towards strong long term support near 1.2625, which will mark the end to green wave iii. From close to 1.2625 we should see a minor correction in green wave iv before the next downside pressure in green wave v is seen, this time break below 1.2625.

 USD/JPY – The most likely scenario short term is, that we have seen the final X-wave done at 80.55 and that the last part of the correction from 84.17 is under way towards the ideal target-area between 78.33 . 78.85, from where the next impulsive rally above 84.17 should begin.
Short term a break below 80.17 will be first indication that the X-wave is done.

GBP/USD -  More and more odds favor, that the long term triangle ended at 1.6301 and the final thrust out of the triangle to the downside has begun.
Looking at the short term picture red wave iii will most likely end in the 1.5866 – 1.5884 area and set up a minor rally towards the 1.5930 area and then the last decline towards 1.5802 in red wave v and wave black wave iii.

 NZD/USD – The decline since the 0.8233 has been very steep, but we have now reached strong support in the 0.7919 – 0.7952 area, which should provide a correction towards 0.7854 in black wave iv, but longer term focus should be set at much lower levels.

 VIX Index – Only went side ways and is now closing inside the Bollinger Band, which could set the next stage for more upside towards resistance at 26.86. However there is a possibility that the sideways price-action will continue to the mid-band reaches to just below 21 before the next move higher is seen.

 Dow Jones Industrial Index – Support at 12.735 when broken turned nicely into resistance, which is one of the clearest signals you can get, that the trend has changed. Therefore keep you eyes on the next support near 12,400 if this support is broken too, then 12.257 – 12,258 become the next critical support-area.

 Junk Bonds (JNK) – Is beginning to look very bearish a break below support at 38.64 will open up the downside for a decline towards 37.91 and probably lower towards 36.19 longer term.

Copper – Dr. Copper seems to have joined the gang telling us that the Global economy is headed towards trouble. A break below support at 338.40 will call for a test of the important neck-line support near 314. If we sees a clear break below here that would be very bearish, especially for China and the Chinese banks. In many cases the Chinese banks have used Copper as collateral for loans and these loans will be in trouble if Copper-prices begins to turn down hard.

 USD Index – Is testing strong resistance, but we we break above here (close above on a weekly basis) the next target will be at 91.61, which is the Inverted Shoulder/Head/Shoulder target. On the way up we should expect strong resistance at 88.75 too.

EUR/USD – Here we are currently testing strong support near 1.2625, but if this support breaks (close below on a weekly basis) then the long term support-line of the rising channel becomes the target. If we break below support at 1.2625 expect good support at 1.1632 too.

 USD Index – Is testing strong resistance, but we we break above here (close above on a weekly basis) the next target will be at 91.61, which is the Inverted Shoulder/Head/Shoulder target. On the way up we should expect strong resistance at 88.75 too.

EUR/USD – Here we are currently testing strong support near 1.2625, but if this support breaks (close below on a weekly basis) then the long term support-line of the rising channel becomes the target. If we break below support at 1.2625 expect good support at 1.1632 too.

My charting-system is up and running again!

EUR/USD – Still haven’t seen real wave 3 action towards the downside, even though the decline follows the path that I drew some time ago.
However I feel confident that the downside pressure is mounting and once risk takes is forced to close their positions we will finally see the real wave 3 behavior.

VIX – Yesterday we saw the first close above the resistance-line, which is bullish for the volatility.
However we also closed outside the upper Bollinger Band, which normally calls for a set-back towards the mid-band, before the next real pressure towards the upside sets in.

Dow Jones Industrial Index – Closed below the 12,735 support , which calls for more downside pressure towards at least 12,400, where we we find the next strong support.
The big question is whether a new X-wave is developing before the final rally up in a complete triple-correction from the 2009 low. It would fit my long term view nicely if it was the case. See the post here http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/03/dow-jones-industrial-index-interesting.html.

CRB  Index – Closed below the important support at 294 for the first time on Friday since October 2010. If this close is confirmed on the weekly chart with a close below here on next Friday it will be very bearish and call for a continuation towards at least 259 and longer term we should see a break below the ending-point of wave [A] at 200.

Gold – Is very close to break below important support at 1,521, which will call for a continuation down towards 1,300. However short term it seems as a minor rally towards the 1,594 - 1,609 area should be seen first.

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 EUR/JPY – Has just tested its 61.8% retracement target of wave 1, which rose from 97.03 to 111.03. We are in a low risk EUR-buy area, the only question is whether we need on last decline to just below 102.23 before wave 2 finally finds its ending-point. A break above resistance at 103.30 and more importantly 103.77 should be the first good indicators that wave 2 has bottomed and a new impulsive up-move has begun.

CHF/JPY – The picture is pretty much the same here, but we haven’t quite tested the 61.8% retracement target at 84.76 yet. There is not demand that we do see a perfect hit, but as long as resistance at 86.00 protects the upside we could see one last decline closer to 84.76, but and break above 86.00 and more importantly 86.37 will indicate that wave 2 is finished and call for a new impulsive rally.

 10Y German Bund ag. 10Y Spanish Bond – The two graphs above show the yield on the German 10Y Bund and the 10Y Spanish Bond and the lower chart the spread between the two.
As can be seen on the upper chart the 10Y yield on the Spanish Bond is rising again, while the yield on the 10Y Bund is falling. Focusing on the Spanish yield a break above resistance at 6.90% will trigger a rally towards the next resistance at 8.08.
Looking at the lower chart the spread between the two has now risen to new all time highs since the EURO was born. That is not good news for Spain and it’s not good news for the EU. The EU will not be able to bail out Spain!

 EUR/USD – Continues to decline towards the important support near 1.2625. I still miss real wave 3 price-action, but it should show up fairly soon. There is a possibility that we “just” sees a decline to 1.2842 from where a correction up towards the 1.3011 – 1.3063 area is see, before real downside pressure takes over, but we will let time show.

 USD/JPY – Is still looked in the corrective down-channel. I expect resistance i the 80.30 – 80.45 area to protect the upside for a break below 79.86 to confirm the next downside pressure towards the ideal target-area between 78.33 – 78.85.

GBP/USD – As is the case with EUR/USD we still lack some real evidence that wave 3 down is in motion. I’m waiting and looking for support at 1.6050 to be broken (close below) to get things going towards the downside. The is a risk that the correction that began at 1.6067 is not over yet and we need one last rally towards the 1.6198 – 1.6212 area before the downside pressure really builds.

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EUR/NOK – Breaking out from a Bull-flag. This should at least spark a rally towards the long term resistance-line near 7.7100.
In the big picture we have seen a triple Zig-zag correction since the high at 10.16 ultimo December 2008. This Triple Zig-zag found support on the red long term support-line and the following rally is clearly a five wave rally, which tells us, that we should at least expect a similar rally from the low of the correction, which calls for a move towards at least 7.7850, just above the long term resistance-line at 7.7100. However a clear break above 7.7100 and more importantly 7.7850 will call for a continuation higher towards 7.95.
The Norwegian crown has been one on the safe-haven currencies during the aftermath from the financial crisis in 2008, but that status seems to be over for now.

 USD/CAD – The Expanded flat correction I described yesterday has played out almost to perfection.
We should now see resistance in the 1.0030 – 1.0040 area protect the upside for a break below 0.9991 towards the target-area between 0.9882 – 0.9900 before the next impulsive rally takes over.

 AUD/USD – The decline from 1.0474 does have all the characteristic of an impulsive decline. Ideally resistance at 1.0220 will protect the upside for a continuation towards 0.9857 and 0.9659 as the next targets.

 EUR/USD – We still haven’t seen any real wave three behavior, but it should just be a matter of time before the bottom falls out under EUR and a drop to strong support at 1.2625 is seen.

 USD/JPY – It was judgement day yesterday and the break below 79.51 confirmed that we saw a complete five wave rally from 75.55 to 84.17 as wave 1, and that we currently is tracing out wave 2. Ideally wave 2 will end in the 78.33 – 78.85 area, but the way there will not be in a straight line, but then it never is so…

 USD/JPY (hourly) – The decline from 80.54 is in its final part and we should see one more decline towards 79.10, but not below. The decline from 80.54 has become an ending diagonal and wave iii can not be the shortest, which is why 79.10 can not be broken. From close to 79.10 we should see a new X-wave towards 80.54 before that last part for the decline to the ideal target-are between 78.33 – 78.85 should be seen.

 GBP/USD – The failure the maintain the break below 1.6120 yesterday is somewhat disappointing and opens two possibilities. One is that we are in an expanding flat correction from 1.6111 and we need one more rally towards 1.6243 before wave ii is over. The second possibility is that we are building a series of waves one’s and two’s setting the stages for a powerful move down in the wave three’s. A break above 1.6169 will confirm the expanding flat scenario, while a break below 1.6100 will favor the one-two scenario.

 VIX Index – We have now seen the test of resistance at 21.85 and we should expect a small pull-back from here, but then I’m looking for a break above 21.85 towards the next resistance near 26.86.

 Dow Jones Industrial Index – The decline from 13,338 to 12,749 does look impulsive (in five waves), therefore we should only look for a three wave correction towards the 13,116 – 13,175 area from where the next decline below important support at 12.734 should be seen. A clear break below 12,734 will call for a continuation towards the 12,350 area and possibly even 12,234.

 CRB Index – Is very close to break clearly below important support at 294. If this support is broken the bearish implications should be clear and call for a continuation down towards the 247 – 248 area. However we should expect the strong support at 294 to put up quite a fight, but winning? I don’t think it’s possible…

 Gold – The target is locked on support at 1,521 and a break below here will most likely make the bulls surrender and open up the downside for a move towards 1,383 as the next target.

 Dr. Copper – Has actually done quite well lately, but it doesn’t take much more downside pressure to open up the downside for a decline towards strong support near 315 and a break below here will be very negative. But for now lets see if we can break below 359, which will open up for the 315 test.

 Crude Oil – Should soon see support near 90 tested and a clear break below here will call for a continuation down to 75 as the next strong support.

 Natural Gas – A top could be in place at 2.51 or we could be developing an ending diagonal, which will buy us some more time and a slightly higher high near 2.59 before a correction towards 2.30 and likely 2.17 – 2.18 sets in

Soybeans – In my last post (see here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/05/time-to-keep-close-eye-on-commodities.html) I said that an important long term top could be in place if we broke below 1,456 and we have done just that. I think support at 1,403 will protect the downside for a back-test of the important Support/Resistance level at 1,456, before the downside pressure takes over again and this time support at 1,403 will not be able to protect the downside and a much deeper decline should be seen.