EUR/USD – Should see one last decline towards strong long term support near 1.2625, which will mark the end to green wave iii. From close to 1.2625 we should see a minor correction in green wave iv before the next downside pressure in green wave v is seen, this time break below 1.2625.

 USD/JPY – The most likely scenario short term is, that we have seen the final X-wave done at 80.55 and that the last part of the correction from 84.17 is under way towards the ideal target-area between 78.33 . 78.85, from where the next impulsive rally above 84.17 should begin.
Short term a break below 80.17 will be first indication that the X-wave is done.

GBP/USD -  More and more odds favor, that the long term triangle ended at 1.6301 and the final thrust out of the triangle to the downside has begun.
Looking at the short term picture red wave iii will most likely end in the 1.5866 – 1.5884 area and set up a minor rally towards the 1.5930 area and then the last decline towards 1.5802 in red wave v and wave black wave iii.

 NZD/USD – The decline since the 0.8233 has been very steep, but we have now reached strong support in the 0.7919 – 0.7952 area, which should provide a correction towards 0.7854 in black wave iv, but longer term focus should be set at much lower levels.

 VIX Index – Only went side ways and is now closing inside the Bollinger Band, which could set the next stage for more upside towards resistance at 26.86. However there is a possibility that the sideways price-action will continue to the mid-band reaches to just below 21 before the next move higher is seen.

 Dow Jones Industrial Index – Support at 12.735 when broken turned nicely into resistance, which is one of the clearest signals you can get, that the trend has changed. Therefore keep you eyes on the next support near 12,400 if this support is broken too, then 12.257 – 12,258 become the next critical support-area.

 Junk Bonds (JNK) – Is beginning to look very bearish a break below support at 38.64 will open up the downside for a decline towards 37.91 and probably lower towards 36.19 longer term.

Copper – Dr. Copper seems to have joined the gang telling us that the Global economy is headed towards trouble. A break below support at 338.40 will call for a test of the important neck-line support near 314. If we sees a clear break below here that would be very bearish, especially for China and the Chinese banks. In many cases the Chinese banks have used Copper as collateral for loans and these loans will be in trouble if Copper-prices begins to turn down hard.

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 USD Index – Is testing strong resistance, but we we break above here (close above on a weekly basis) the next target will be at 91.61, which is the Inverted Shoulder/Head/Shoulder target. On the way up we should expect strong resistance at 88.75 too.

EUR/USD – Here we are currently testing strong support near 1.2625, but if this support breaks (close below on a weekly basis) then the long term support-line of the rising channel becomes the target. If we break below support at 1.2625 expect good support at 1.1632 too.

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May 16, 2012

 USD Index – Is testing strong resistance, but we we break above here (close above on a weekly basis) the next target will be at 91.61, which is the Inverted Shoulder/Head/Shoulder target. On the way up we should expect strong resistance at 88.75 too.

EUR/USD – Here we are currently testing strong support near 1.2625, but [...]

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Apple looking at a 34% decline…

May 16, 2012

With the courtesy of Peter L. Brandt

If Jess Livermore had ever seen the upper chart of Apple he would not hesitate to sell it short at this point (see his note “Test before selling short” in the upper right corner of his chart). The break below Livermore’s point 11 was his trigger and is clearly bearish [...]

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Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; The VIX Index; DJI; Gold and Natural Gas

May 15, 2012

My charting-system is up and running again!

EUR/USD – Still haven’t seen real wave 3 action towards the downside, even though the decline follows the path that I drew some time ago.However I feel confident that the downside pressure is mounting and once risk takes is forced to close their positions we will finally [...]

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Elliott wave analysis on EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY

May 15, 2012

I have had some problems with my normal charting-system, so I have had to use the back-up system today, Sorry!

 EUR/JPY – Has just tested its 61.8% retracement target of wave 1, which rose from 97.03 to 111.03. We are in a low risk EUR-buy area, the only question is whether we need on last decline [...]

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Elliott wave and technical analusis on German – Spanish 10Y yield; EUR/USD; USD/JPY and GBP/USD

May 14, 2012

 10Y German Bund ag. 10Y Spanish Bond – The two graphs above show the yield on the German 10Y Bund and the 10Y Spanish Bond and the lower chart the spread between the two.As can be seen on the upper chart the 10Y yield on the Spanish Bond is rising again, while the yield on [...]

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EUR/NOK breaking out from a Bull-flag.

May 11, 2012

EUR/NOK – Breaking out from a Bull-flag. This should at least spark a rally towards the long term resistance-line near 7.7100.In the big picture we have seen a triple Zig-zag correction since the high at 10.16 ultimo December 2008. This Triple Zig-zag found support on the red long term support-line and the following rally is [...]

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Commodity currencies on the retreat

May 10, 2012

 USD/CAD – The Expanded flat correction I described yesterday has played out almost to perfection.We should now see resistance in the 1.0030 – 1.0040 area protect the upside for a break below 0.9991 towards the target-area between 0.9882 – 0.9900 before the next impulsive rally takes over.

 AUD/USD – The decline from 1.0474 does have all the [...]

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Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; GBP/USD; VIX; DJI; CRB; Gold; Copper; Crude Oil; Natural Gas and Soybeans

May 10, 2012

 EUR/USD – We still haven’t seen any real wave three behavior, but it should just be a matter of time before the bottom falls out under EUR and a drop to strong support at 1.2625 is seen.

 USD/JPY – It was judgement day yesterday and the break below 79.51 confirmed that we saw a complete five [...]

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